Cut-Off Lows and Extreme Precipitation in Eastern Spain: Current and Future Climate

This study presents a seasonal synoptic climatology of cut-off lows (COLs) that produced extreme precipitation in the Valencia region Spain during 1998–2018 and uses simulations with Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model to how COL may change future warmer climate. COLs were shown be main producer region, especially transition seasons. The strongest raining events occurred September–November. Six-day composites thermodynamic dynamic fields show produce this remain stationary over for 2–3 days tend at least two consecutive days. In low levels these are characterized by pressure Mediterranean sea winds an easterly, onshore component thus fueling precipitation. Comparison current climate ensembles WRF 14 September–November producing suggest increase as much 88% northeastern 61% adjoining Sea. These projected increases northeast present additional challenges where flooding already has significant socio-economic impacts. Additionally, about half event showed Valencian eastern Spain. results provide important nuance projections decreasing trend total Iberian Peninsula warms.